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Apple is not expecting an iPhone 16 upgrade super cycle, says analyst

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims that Apple has ordered fractionally fewer iPhone 16 models than the iPhone 15, going against the idea that Apple Intelligence will prompt upgrades.

Two smartphones with metallic edges, one showing three rear cameras and a flash, the other displaying a vibrant red and yellow screen.
Renders of the forthcoming iPhone 16 range

Other analysts have previously said that Apple Intelligence will drive up iPhone 16 upgrades into a super cycle, and there have even been reports of Apple ordering more iPhones to be manufactured in expectation of such a super cycle.

One source arguing against a super cycle, though, has been Ming-Chi Kuo. In July 2024, he reported that suppliers such as Largan and TSMC had not seen an increase in orders that would indicate Apple expecting high sales.

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